Thu, 24 Jun 2021

CHICAGO, May 8 (Xinhua) -- CBOT agricultural futures soared to yearly highs in the past week amid strong demand and adverse weather conditions in South America and the U.S. Northern Plains and Canada, Chicago-based research company AgResource noted.

CBOT corn futures ended sharply higher on new bullish input. Brazilian subsoil moisture will be gone entirely in the next 10 days. A sub-90-million ton total Brazilian corn crop is feasible. Yet, regional seeding delays in the Delta and the expansion of drought across the U.S. Plains have triggered urgency with respect to adding premium to new crop values.

U.S. corn prices continue to search for a level that triggers maximum old crop producer sales and slows demand. This price has not been found. Ethanol margins are near breakeven for spot and incredibly profitable in forward positions. U.S. export demand growth will resume in August-September as Brazil's interior market absorbs the first of the safrinha harvest. AgResource predicts that the upside target for old crop July corn futures will be 8-8.50 dollars with December contract to test 6.60-7.00 dollars. Adverse U.S. Midwest weather in summer could easily advance December corn to 7.50-8.00 dollars.

U.S. and world wheat futures soared to multi-year highs with the new crop global cash market following. U.S. wheat is working to keep export demand limited to captive markets amid its sizeable premium to other origins.

The goal of the world wheat market is to limit feed demand growth amid tight exporter supplies.

The corn outlook is explosively bullish which lends support to wheat. Additionally, weather issues in Canada and across the northern U.S. provide enough of a bullish spark to sustain wheat's own bullish fundamental outlook.

The tolerance for exporter yield loss in 2021 is zero. Any loss of the Northern U.S. Plains or Canadian wheat crops would add to wheat's bullish outlook. A test of the 2011-2012 highs may occur if heat and dryness spread across North America this summer.

Soybean futures hit new yearly highs. To date, there has been no indication that tight U.S. soybean stocks are being rationed. Domestic processor margins are strong while U.S. exporters continue to sell/export token amounts of soybeans on a weekly basis. At the same time, the U.S. soybean imports hold at multi-year lows. The U.S. old crop soy balance sheet is far from being resolved.

In the new crop, U.S. soybean planting progress was reported at 24 percent completed. Based on Midwest weather, AgResource estimates that 38-42 percent will have been planted through Sunday. Dry weather in U.S. Western Midwest and Northern Plains remains a concern for soybean seed germination/emergence.

AgResource stays bullish on November soybeans on record low stock/use ratios amid the growing risk of a Central U.S. summer heat and dryness.

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